The conflict in Iran continues to escalate. An oil tanker and several bases were attacked at the weekend and more and more sailors are stranded in the region.
Last week, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. The strait is an economically important and sensitive bottleneck – around 20% of the world’s oil needs pass through the strait.
At the weekend, an oil tanker in the region was attacked. According to media reports, it was the “Prima”, a 111-meter-long ship built in 2010 and sailing under the Maltese flag. Other sources link the attack to the product tanker “Louis P”, which is currently located near the Saudi Arabian port of King Fahad Industrial Port in al-Jubail. This is also indicated by the UKMTO’s report of a drone attack on an unnamed ship located at this position. The “Louis P” was built in 2016, is 169 meters long and flies the flag of the Marshall Islands. The Revolutionary Guard used drones to fire on the tanker. According to reports, the crew ignored “repeated warnings”.
Although the Strait of Hormuz appears virtually empty on AIS services, industry sources say that ships will continue to pass through the strait. It is possible to insure ships against the risks of war. However, this option is extremely expensive and the rates for tankers are so high that some shipowners justify the risk for their crews and ships. There have been attacks on tankers before.
Iran launches drone attacks
In addition to the strike on the tanker, Iran has also used drones against other targets. There have been major offensives against Israel, and two US bases in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have also been hit.
Meanwhile, the number of seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf continues to rise. While the figure at the beginning of last week was 7,000, it has now risen to 20,000. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez described the situation as “unacceptable” and warned of the risk to which the seafarers were exposed. He also pointed out the “high psychological strain”.
Oil price continues to rise
The conflict is having a direct impact – on the price of oil, among other things. The war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused the price of Brent crude to rise by 20% to $111 per barrel.
A de-escalation still does not appear to be in sight. States in the region warned Iran of further attacks; Saudi Arabia threatened that Tehran would be the “biggest loser” in the conflict. Turkey recently deployed fighter jets to Cyprus, while Israel reported attacks on the Iranian city of Isfahan. Ukraine, which has to defend itself against Russia, sent drones to protect US bases in the region.
Meanwhile, the Iranian government appears to be continuing on its current course. This is also indicated by the election of Mojtaba Chameini, son of the slain Ayatollah Ali Chameini, as the new religious leader of the Islamic state.
