According to analyses by the shipping organization Bimco, Russian oil exports fell in the first quarter of the year, but were largely unaffected by the latest rounds of sanctions.
Although the sanctions have not significantly affected Russian oil exports, future market developments could do so.
“In the first quarter of 2025, Russian oil exports fell by 6% year-on-year. Exports of clean tankers fell by 13%, while exports of dirty tankers fell by 4%,” reports Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at Bimco. “Despite the decline, exports appear to have been largely unaffected by the recent sanctions.”
More than 180 ships subject to sanctions
In early January, the Biden administration increased pressure on Russian oil exports by imposing sanctions on more than 180 ships and several individuals and companies involved in Russian oil and gas production and exports.
However, despite initial expectations that the sanctions could significantly affect Russian oil exports by sea, trade has largely escaped unscathed. The Shandong Port Group’s ban on US-sanctioned ships and the Indian oil minister’s declaration that India would only buy oil from companies and ships not sanctioned by the US do not appear to be affecting exports.
Crude oil volume in the first quarter lower than in 2024
Exports of crude oil in tankers were higher in the first quarter of 2025 than in the last three quarters of 2024, but fell significantly compared to the first quarter of 2024. Ukrainian attacks on key Russian refineries continue to disrupt refinery production and affect export volumes
“72 new vessels have helped to support exports in the current year. The new ships have not participated in trade since the G7 agreed on an oil price cap in December 2022. According to Signal Ocean data, most of them are not sanctioned,” says Rasmussen.
According to the same data, 162 sanctioned vessels exported Russian oil in the first quarter of 2025. Combined, they transported almost 20% of exports, and India and China imported 80% of their cargo.
Sanctions cause freight rates to rise
When discussing sanctions, it is important to emphasize that most countries do not recognize the sanctions imposed by the US, the EU and the UK, nor do they adhere to the G7 price cap.
Seaborne export volumes have therefore remained largely unaffected, but the sanctions have reduced the availability of ships and freight rates have risen as a result. According to the International Energy Agency, rising freight rates have driven oil prices below the $60 per barrel price cap in some cases and enabled a shift to non-sanctioned tankers.
“While the sanctions have not caused significant damage to Russian oil exports so far, future market developments could change this,” says Rasmussen. “Buyers could turn to other suppliers as rising OPEC production could increase oversupply in the oil market. Demand could also be affected by slower economic growth due to the burgeoning trade wars and ongoing decarbonization efforts.”
