The USA and India have reached a historic trade agreement. Only shortly after the deal with the EU. According to industry experts, this could have a significant impact on the global oil trade and Russia’s maritime transportation in particular.
Bimco chief analyst Niels Rasmussen points this out in a recent report. Last year, around 33% of India’s oil imports came from Russia. At the same time, trade with India accounted for around 25% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports. “A new trade agreement between the USA and India could put an end to this trade,” explains Rasmussen.
Donald Trump recently announced that the two countries had agreed on mutual tariff reductions. According to the agreement, US tariffs on Indian goods are to fall from 50% to 18%, while India may want to completely abolish tariffs on US goods in return. However, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has yet to publicly confirm these concessions.
India is increasingly relying on US oil
Trump also stated that India had committed to ending its oil purchases from Russia and instead importing significantly more energy and goods from the USA. The Indian government has not yet officially confirmed this part of the agreement either.
However, there are already signs of a decline at the start of the year: In the first five weeks of 2026, Russian oil exports to India fell by 34% compared to the previous year. Rasmussen attributes this in part to the European Union’s tighter restrictions on the purchase, import and onward transportation of oil products made from Russian crude oil.
It is still too early to speak of a complete end to Russia-India oil trade. However, the combination of EU restrictions and a possible US-Indian trade agreement could significantly reduce the volume. Before the Russian attack on Ukraine, up to two thirds of India’s crude oil and oil product imports came from the Persian Gulf. By 2025, this share was only 45%.
Noticeable consequences for tanker shipping
If supplies from Russia continue to fall, Indian importers are likely to increasingly switch to the Persian Gulf. Trump also stated that India would increase its oil imports from the USA and possibly from Venezuela. A reduction in Russia-India trade would have a noticeable impact on tanker shipping. In 2025, this trade accounted for 0.5% of tonne-miles in the clean tanker market and 4.7% in the dirty tanker segment. The market for crude oil tankers could be particularly affected, as demand for ships in the main fleet would increase and shift at the expense of the so-called parallel fleet.
“While Trump already stated in October last year that India had pledged to significantly reduce its Russian oil purchases, we now believe this scenario is much more likely,” says Rasmussen. However, an equally large decline in total Russian oil exports is not to be expected, as Russia will try to find new customers – if necessary with higher price discounts.
