The Danish logistics group A.P. Møller-Maersk has had a relatively slow start to the year. However, the company has now almost doubled its forecast.
In the first quarter, Maersk reported revenue of $12.97 billion, representing a decline of 2.6 per cent. Low freight rates in the ocean shipping business were the main factor behind this. The forecast for the full year 2026 was correspondingly conservative: the group expected the global container market to grow by between 2 and 4 per cent and anticipated growing in line with this. EBITDA was expected to be between $4.5 and $7 billion.
This forecast was influenced by persistent overcapacity and uncertainty regarding the navigability of the Red Sea. Added to this was the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is still considered critical. The provisional peace agreement between the US and Iran, concluded around two weeks ago, is regarded as unstable – both countries have attacked each other again in recent days.
Maersk, however, remains confident despite current developments. The Danish company has significantly raised its initially conservative forecast for the full year 2026. According to a company statement, this is due to “continued strong demand in the container market, particularly in the Far East, as well as the recent, sustained rise in spot market rates”.
Maersk now expects definitive growth of 4 per cent in the container market, rather than the previously forecast 2 to 4 per cent. The new expected EBITDA is therefore between $8 billion and $10 billion, almost double the figure originally stated. EBIT has also risen significantly: Instead of the expected -$1.5 to $1 billion, Maersk now anticipates a figure of between $2 and $4 billion. The company also expects an improved outlook for free cash flow, which has risen from -$3 billion to -$1.5 billion.
Maersk’s second-quarter results will not be announced until 13 August. However, the new forecast already suggests that the Danish company has managed to put its weak start to the year behind it.
