According to Bimco, the market outlook for tanker shipping will remain stable in the short term, but will develop differently depending on the segment.
While crude oil tankers should continue to benefit from comparatively strong conditions in 2026 and 2027, the product tanker market is expected to weaken.
According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand will increase by 0.9 million barrels per day in 2026, while supply will grow by 2.4 million barrels per day. The oversupply is therefore likely to increase and peak at around 4.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects stronger demand growth of 1.2-1.3 million barrels per day annually in 2026 and 2027, but forecasts more moderate supply growth of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026 and 0.9 million barrels per day in 2027. According to this estimate, the oversupply could already peak in the first quarter of 2026 at around 3.2 million barrels per day.
According to Bimco, falling oil prices as a result of the oversupply could encourage the build-up of inventories and thus support demand for crude oil tankers. At the same time, a sustained increase in inventories opens up additional opportunities for product tankers in the transportation of crude oil. However, the BIMCO analysts see a risk that inventories could be reduced again from 2027.
Geopolitical risks and sanctions fleets
Additional market impetus could result from geopolitical developments. The increasing pressure on sanctioned shadow fleets could open up additional transport opportunities for conventional tankers. Venezuelan oil exports have already shifted more to the regular fleet. Possible declines in Russian or Iranian exports could also support the market. Meanwhile, BIMCO cites the Strait of Hormuz as a significant risk. An imminent escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran could lead to disruptions or a temporary closure there. In this case, up to 30% of global seaborne oil exports would be affected.
Growing order books increase supply pressure
Since the last Bimco report, capacity in the order book for crude oil tankers has risen by 24%, while the order book for product tankers has increased by 5%. The ratio of the order book to the existing fleet is therefore 18% in the crude oil segment and 19% for product tankers.
If scrapping activity does not turn out to be significantly stronger than currently expected, this could lead to a supply-driven weakening of the markets in the coming years. There is a larger pool of potential scrapping candidates: ships over 20 years old account for around 18-22% of the capacity of both fleets. However, restrictions on the sale of sanctioned ships could slow down scrapping, as they account for 29% and 59% of the capacity of the older crude oil and product tanker fleets respectively.
