The Hong Kong Convention officially enters into force today, setting a global standard for the safe and environmentally sound recycling of ships.
The international shipping industry has welcomed the agreement, with industry experts anticipating a significant rise in ship scrapping in the coming years.
Adopted in 2009, the Hong Kong Convention aims to reduce risks to human health, safety, and the environment caused by improper ship recycling. Every year, large quantities of hazardous materials are released due to substandard scrapping practices.
“Today marks a welcome and historic step forward after two decades of work on this issue,” said Thomas A. Kazakos, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS). “At the ICS, we have long advocated for safe and sustainable ship recycling practices. With the entry into force of the Hong Kong Convention, we can now look forward to further progress in improving ship recycling worldwide.”
The life expectancy of the global merchant fleet is expected to decline as the industry accelerates decarbonization. This puts pressure on shipowners to decide whether to retrofit older vessels to comply with FuelEU Maritime and EU ETS requirements—or scrap them early if retrofitting proves economically unviable.
“Through global instruments such as the Hong Kong Convention, we can move forward safely, efficiently and sustainably. A global industry needs global regulations,” said Kazakos.
“The entry into force of the Hong Kong Convention is a milestone for our industry,” added Sotiris Raptis, Secretary General of the European Shipowners’ Association (ECSA). “It sends a strong signal that multilateral cooperation in the IMO can and should continue to be successful. The global requirements coming into force today already represent significant progress for the sustainability of our industry.”
It is now important to build on these foundations and further strengthen the agreement. “A global standard is essential to ensure environmentally sound and safe ship recycling and to safeguard the competitiveness of European shipping.”
Southeast Asia remains the dominant region for ship recycling. From 2015 and 2024, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan were the largest recycling countries, accounting for 86% of total capacity. More than half of all ships were dismantled there.
The dominance of these three countries increased further after 2017, as China stopped recycling international ships and has since scrapped less than 2% of its total capacity, according to figures from the shipping organization Bimco.
Outside of South Asia, Turkey remains an important recycling location, especially for offshore vessels. In Germany, the first recycling company, EWD Benli in Emden, recently started operations.
Hong Kong Convention: Bimco expects twice as many ships
Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at Bimco, expects a sharp rise in ship scrapping over the next decade due to the convention.
“With the entry into force of the Hong Kong International Convention on the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships, we have updated our estimate of the ship recycling potential for the next ten years,” says Rasmussen. “We now estimate the potential at 16,000 ships, or 700 million dwt, compared to 15,000 previously. The new estimate represents twice the number of ships and almost three times the carrying capacity recycled in the last ten years. This underlines the need for investment in compliant recycling facilities.”
Bimco’s forecast is based on historical recycling rates between 2000 and 2019, categorized by segment and ship type. For example, if an average of 10% of all 20-year-old Capesize ships were scrapped during this period, the analysis assumed the same frequency.
“The period 2000 to 2019 was characterized by both very low and high recycling volumes,” said Bimco. “We therefore believe that this period provides a good basis for calculating future potential.”
Most ships “due” for scrapping in the coming years were built in the 1990s.
“Between 2015 and 2024, ships built in the 1990s accounted for 35% of the ships recycled and 62% of the total capacity,” says Rasmussen. “In the 2000s, 31% more ships were built, representing a 115% increase in capacity. Ships built during this period are expected to dominate recycling over the next ten years.”
