The MPP shipping industry is naturally not immune to the Iran war and the crisis in the Middle East. The situation is still quite diffuse, with consequences for the charter market.
Hamburg-based broker Toepfer Transport has published an update to its TMI market index. It shows time charter rates for the so-called workhorses of the industry: the F-Class multipurpose freighters with 12,500 tdw and 240 t crane capacity. The index stands at $12,683 – slightly lower than in the previous month. However, the drop is only 0.53%. The analysts emphasize that the value is characterized by “rather low activity on the charter market”, which leads to a lack of data.
In general, “the growing concerns about supply bottlenecks and high bunker prices due to the war in the Middle East are not currently reflected in the TMI.” This could be due to the fact that the majority of cargo not destined for the Middle East continues to be shipped, as expected, and fleet utilization therefore remains high. “Another aspect is the great caution of market participants and their therefore rather low activity on the charter market,” the report states.
As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects not only the oil and gas trade, but a total of 50 non-mineral products, of which the Hormuz states have the largest global export share (2024), the economic impact of this crisis would be far more serious than many currently assume, writes Toepfer Transport, quoting Julian Hinz, Head of the Trade Policy Research Group at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy: “The key problem is the chain reaction.” An energy shock quickly leads to a fertilizer shock and then to a food crisis – especially in countries that are dependent on imports at every stage.
However, the impact of the recently announced ceasefire between the USA and Iran and the possible opening of the Strait of Hormuz is still completely unclear in this context. The survey for the current TMI was also conducted before the latest turn of events from Washington – as was the question about medium-term expectations in the MPP market, which are reflected in the TMI-P6 and TMI-P12 sub-indices. Toepfer Transport asks for assessments for the next six and twelve months. The former currently shows a plus of 0.27%, while the TMI-12 stands at +1.04%.
