The maritime effects of the Iran war extend as far as Central America: the Panama Canal records more transits as the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz lead to a shift in US energy exports.
Filipe Gouveia, analyst at the shipping organization Bimco, discusses the situation in a market report published today: “So far this year, ship passages through the Panama Canal have increased by 8% to a daily average of 38 – largely driven by the tanker sector.” Passages were particularly high in the past five weeks, when they increased by 16% compared to the previous year. Gouveia believes this is due to the sharp rise in US energy exports to the Pacific.
The war in Iran and the subsequent decline in passages through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted exports from the Persian Gulf, tightening global energy supplies and driving up energy commodity prices. This contributed to an increase in US energy exports to Asia and the West Coast of the Americas, thus increasing demand for transit slots in the Panama Canal.
“The maximum daily capacity of the Panama Canal is around 36 to 40 passages, which means that it is currently operating close to its capacity limit,” says Gouveia. Some passages are booked in advance, others are offered as last-minute slots that are auctioned off daily. The recent surge in demand has driven up auction prices and led to a 50% increase in waiting times compared to the previous year. They now average 47 hours.
Container ships, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and oil tankers as well as bulkers together account for 77% of passages. Container ship owners are comparatively better able to book transit slots early due to the relatively fixed schedules. According to the data, other sectors – such as bulk carriers and oil tankers – generally only bid for available slots shortly before the planned transit date.
The shipping organization – which is mainly supported by shipowners and ship managers as well as brokers – dares to look ahead: “If the cost and time required to transit the Panama Canal increases, shipping companies may consider a route via the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn. These alternative routes increase the length of the voyage and consequently lead to higher bunker or fuel costs,” but they could also offer savings on canal charges and provide additional flexibility.
Bimco believes that demand for passages through the Panama Canal will remain high as long as the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue and US energy exports remain at a high level. In the short term, congestion and waiting times could therefore remain high and even increase further in the medium term.
The canal authority ACP has scheduled maintenance work on the eastern lane of the Panamax locks for the period from June 9 to 17; during this time, ten fewer slots than usual will be offered. Gouveia expects the El Niño weather phenomenon to occur between May and July, posing a further risk to transits through the Panama Canal. Under the influence of El Niño, Panama typically experiences lower rainfall, which can affect the water level of Lake Gatún – the canal’s most important water reservoir.
“When El Niño last occurred in 2023, it affected regular passage conditions for about a year. At the peak of the disruption, between December 2023 and January 2024, only 22 ship passages were permitted daily with a maximum draught of 13.4 meters (44 feet) – a value that is 12% below the normal level,” says Gouveia.
