Bauxite was the dry bulk cargo that propelled the Capesize market in 2025, with 258 million tonnes of the aluminium-making raw material shipped that year, up 18% from 2024, according to shipping consultancy Signal Ocean.
Bauxite was the best performing of the three capesize demand-driving commodities in 2025, outpacing iron ore and coal in terms of tonne-mile growth, and this year is likely to be similar.
January saw 25 million tonnes of bauxite shipped, up 14% year-on-year. With Indonesia having banned bauxite exports in 2023, Guinea has filled the gap, raising tonne-mile demand.
Unsurprisingly, Guinea and China, now the largest aluminium manufacturer, dominate in terms of origin and destination, respectively, with 77% originating from the former and 86% of global flows heading to the latter.
China’s annual aluminium output is around 43 million tonnes, accounting for 60% of global aluminium production.
Guinean seaborne bauxite exports were up 19% year-on-year in January, equating to 19 million tonnes. This increase is matched by China’s increased imports, which are also up 19% over the same period.
Signal Ocean said: “China’s increased demand in 2026 is likely to continue. While the 45 million-tonne annual cap on aluminium production in China remains, domestic alumina capacity is set to expand to 119 million tonnes, 9 million tonnes higher than in 2025. This alumina is likely to find its way to Indonesia as the country rapidly expands its own aluminium production capacity.”
Indonesia banned bauxite exports in 2023, in order to secure material for its own processing and then export higher-value products. The issue is that, despite such large bauxite reserves and production, alumina production capacity is too low, leading to large bauxite stockpiles that cannot be processed or exported. Indonesia reportedly relies on imports for around half of its alumina needs.
Signal Ocean concluded: “Our view of strong bauxite demand will be a positive light for Capesize demand at a time when both iron ore and coal are showing signs of structural decline. What’s more is that with the opening of the Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea, West Africa has further solidified itself as a key origination area for cape demand.” (PL)
