Israel’s recent attack on Iran further increase the risks for shipping in the Middle East.
According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO), there are no currently indications of direct attacks on merchant vessels. However, experts warn of potentially far-reaching consequences. One analyst identifies three key risk factors to watch.
The Israeli government described the attack as a pre-emptive strike targeting Iran. Among other things, Iranian facilities, including nuclear-related sites, missile factories, and military bases were attacked. Several people were killed. Israel announced that it would continue the operation “for as long as necessary”.
In response, Iran launched 100 drones, most of which were intercepted. The U.S. declared it had no role in the attack. Iran still attributes complicity to Washington.
The UKMTO emphasizes there is no current evidence of planned attacks by Iran on commercial shipping in the region. However, the organization warns of a potential escalation of tensions. The Yemeni Houthi militia – a close Iranian ally – could expand its naval activity in the region. A Houthi spokesperson announced plans to impose a naval blockade on the port of Haifa. It remains unclear whether the attacks in the Red Sea will increase again as a result of the latest escalation.
Increased risk for shipping in the Middle East
The risk to maritime operations is increasing, especially in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and most critically, the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping analyst Lars Jensen warned on LinkedIn of a “de facto partial closure” of the Strait, similar to what the Houthis achieved in the Red Sea. Jensen has been following the conflict from the beginning. He identified 3 primary risks for global container shipping in the current development:
- Rising oil prices: Crude oil prices surged over 9% following the attack, and crude oil futures climbed 13%.
- Disruption of key routes: If container carriers begin avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, connections to important transshipment hubs such as Jabal Ali and Port of Khalifa could be severely impacted. This may lead increased transshipment volumes outside the Persian Gulf, with the risk of congestion at ports throughout Asia.
- Wider trade impact: Trade with countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq would suffer “significant disruption.” Jensen noted that non-involved carriers may attempt to fill the gaps – similar to the response in the Red Sea. However, this would add pressure to Asian ports and increase the risk of bottlenecks.
There is currently no clear threat to specific ships, but tensions remain high. Jensen cited the seizure of the “MSC Aries” (14,000 TEU) by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard last year as a reminder of the region’s volatility. Although the crew was released in the summer, the vessel remains in Iranian custody.
