The western Indian Ocean is a central hub for global shipping. According to an analysis by the Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC), around 80% of the global sea-based oil trade passes through these waters.
In particular, the Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and Djibouti is considered a geostrategic bottleneck between Asia, Africa and Europe. However, the security of this region is increasingly threatened by armed attacks on merchant ships, illegal fishing, smuggling, piracy and the use of maritime spaces by extremist groups.
In the context of the civil war in Yemen, Houthi militias regularly attack merchant ships with drones and missiles. These attacks have already changed international routes, made premiums more expensive and increased the risks for crews. This raises the question of whether such threat scenarios are not overemphasized in security policy analyses.
Although the warnings are based on verifiable data from automatic identification systems (AIS signals), shipping company reports and military observations, at the same time, some actors who advocate security are pursuing their own geopolitical interests. Western states not only secure free trade, but also maintain political influence in the region with their naval presence.
Unstable regions promote terrorist networks
Another key problem is illegal fishing. According to CIMSEC, coastal countries such as Kenya, Somalia and Mozambique lose billions every year because foreign ships fish in their waters without permission. However, these estimates are difficult to verify independently. What is clear is that the damage to marine ecosystems, food security and local jobs is real. Where fish stocks collapse and poverty increases, political vulnerability rises. Unstable coastal zones can quickly become a refuge for pirates or armed groups. This also makes them risky for international trade.
The smuggling of drugs, weapons, people and wildlife also flourishes in this zone. Weak controls, corruption and ailing institutions make it easier for cross-border networks to use maritime routes for criminal purposes. These structures often finance armed militias or Islamist groups. According to security observers, piracy, smuggling and terrorism are becoming increasingly intertwined in regions such as the Gulf of Aden or the Kenyan coast – a mix of dangers that not only affects shipping, but also puts international aid missions and diplomatic presence under pressure.
More than military responses needed
The international response has so far focused heavily on patrols and deterrence. The Combined Maritime Forces, an alliance led by the USA with partners from Europe and the Arab world, has had a selective effect through joint surveillance and protective measures. However, long-term security cannot be achieved with this alone. CIMSEC emphasizes that diplomatic approaches to conflict resolution, for example in Yemen or Somalia, are also necessary, as are investments in the rule of law, fisheries management and regional cooperation.
Sustainable stabilization of the Western Indian Ocean therefore requires a balanced approach. Only if security, development and political ownership are considered together can geopolitical tensions with consequences for energy supply, trade routes and global price stability be prevented from escalating further. (rup)
