The war in the Middle East has seen the markets for crude oil tankers reach new all-time highs. The Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck for energy transport, and ships have once again been attacked.
The continuing tense situation in the Persian Gulf is presenting the energy transport sector with conditions that are unprecedented. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil was transported before the war began, remains at the heart of the conflict for shipping. For the tanker market, the current situation represents an all-time high: as reported by Clarksons, VLCC-class (Very Large Crude Carrier) vessels are achieving average rates of $805,000 per day. Freight rates range from $20 to $45 per barrel; on the route from the US Gulf Coast to China, they most recently reached $37.5 per barrel. By way of comparison, in 2025 the rate on this route was just $5 per barrel.
Clarksons also reports that rates for LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) have reached unprecedented highs: VLGC-class (Very Large Gas Carriers) tankers are currently commanding $209,000 per day on the US–Japan route. This figure is underpinned by high transport volumes from the US to Asia, as well as resumed deliveries from the Middle East.
Attacks continue in the Strait of Hormuz
The security situation for shipping in the Persian Gulf remains critical. As recently as Sunday, a tanker was attacked by an “unknown projectile“ whilst passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). No one was injured in the attack, and the crew were able to leave the vessel unharmed. According to an assessment by Clarksons, at least 10 ships have been damaged in the first two weeks of October, with a total tonnage of approximately 1 million GT.
“Despite a recent, slight easing of tensions, large quantities of crude oil continue to leave the Gulf region from the Middle East,” the agency stated. “In recent days, an estimated 10 million barrels per day – and a projected 15 million barrels per day over the course of 2025 – have been transported through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Around 80% of this is said to have been ‘channelled’ through the Strait of Hormuz via ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman. In total, the volume of crude oil transported from the Middle East stands at 16 million barrels per day, representing 90% of the volume transported before the war began. LPG exports are at approximately 50 per cent of normal levels.
Despite the recent recovery in transport volumes, however, a cumulative total of around 2 billion barrels of crude oil have not passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Clarksons does, however, cite several offsetting factors that have limited the “net loss“ to approximately 1 billion barrels. These include higher supply from the Atlantic region, whilst exports via the Saudi Arabian port of Yanbu on the Red Sea also play a role. Furthermore, around 250 million barrels have been drawn from stockpiles to date.
“Energy transport markets are at an unprecedented level, as freight volumes are rising and additional vessels are required due to waiting times for STS transfers and the long oil shipments through the Red Sea,” Clarksons stated in light of these developments. “We estimate that the current situation is boosting demand for crude oil tankers by more than 13 per cent.”
