Demand for bulk tonnage has continued to rise recently. Freight rates are good and are set to remain so, according to forecasts by the industry service MSI.
MSI also expects a “robust market” for dry bulk in 2027, which in turn is likely to boost shipowners’ commitment to newbuilds: “Strong and volatile freight rates are likely to persist into next year and underpin shipowners’ willingness to invest in new tonnage,” states a recent market report.
According to the report, demand growth for bulk carriers, driven by market distortions, continued to outstrip supply in 2026, leading to an exceptionally firm market situation. Market returns and asset values rose to multi-year highs during 2026.
MSI’s base-case scenario forecasts a 2.2% year-on-year growth in the seaborne transport of dry bulk cargo for 2026, whilst the ongoing shift towards longer transport routes has raised demand growth in tonne-miles to 3.5%. Taking into account factors such as reduced slow steaming, longer port lay-ups, congestion and other losses in fleet productivity, the demand for deadweight tonnage actually rises by 4.9%. In absolute terms, this corresponds to an additional demand for shipping capacity of around 40 million dwt.
On the supply side, MSI expects deliveries totalling 43.9 million dwt in 2026, offset by scrappings of just 3.9 million dwt. Handymax and Panamax class vessels account for the majority of this year’s deliveries. An increase in deliveries is expected in the Capesize segment towards the end of the year. Taking into account fleet additions and disposals as well as inactive capacity, MSI anticipates growth in the available fleet of 2.9% year-on-year; this corresponds to an additional effective supply capacity of around 25 million dwt.
“As demand growth significantly outpaces supply, we expect the fleet’s utilisation rate to rise to 91.3%, ensuring an exceptionally firm market. Robust conditions are also expected for 2027, although the market balance is likely to weaken slightly in view of accelerated fleet growth,” explains MSI Director Will Fray.
Growth in the bulk trade is forecast at around 2% for 2027. At the same time, continued growth in long-haul Capesize traffic, combined with only a gradual normalisation of the operational inefficiencies currently supporting the market, would mean that the required increase in demand would be around 3.7%.
On the supply side, the delivery of new capacity totalling around 50 million dwt is expected, which would push effective supply growth up to around 4.0%. “Supply is therefore growing slightly faster than demand, leading to a decline in fleet utilisation to 91%,” the report continues.
“Nevertheless, the market remains robust; strong and volatile freight rates are likely to continue to underpin shipowners’ willingness to invest. We now forecast newbuilding orders in the dry bulk sector of 75.6 million dwt for 2026 – the highest annual figure since 2013 – followed by a further substantial 58.1 million dwt in 2027,” adds Fray.
