The amount of crude oil that Canada exports via tankers has increased by more than half year-on-year.
A large proportion still goes to the United States – but in view of the new tariffs, a rethink has begun in the North.
“Since the beginning of the year, Canadian crude oil tanker exports have reached 618,000 barrels per day,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at the shipping organization Bimco. This compares with 388,000 barrels per day (bpd) last year, which corresponds to an increase of 59%. The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which opened on May 1, 2024, played a major role in this. Capacity increased from 300,000 to 890,000 bpd, resulting in a significant increase in exports from Vancouver on the west coast of the country. In the current year, they have reached 373,000 bpd, accounting for 60% of Canada’s total crude oil tanker exports. Previously, Vancouver only had a share of 10 to 15%, according to Bimco data.
“Since June 2024, Aframax and Panamax crude oil tankers have benefited from the increased volume, loading 75% and 25% of Vancouver volumes respectively,” Rasmussen said. “Panamax vessels export mainly to the US, while Aframax vessels also export to Asia and therefore benefit from longer voyages.”
95% of crude oil exports go to the USA
The USA remains the most important customer for crude oil from Canada. 58% of tanker exports go to its neighbor to the south, while East Asia has emerged as the second largest export destination with 21% of the total volume. China is the largest customer in the region.
In addition to exports via tankers, the USA also receives around 3.7 million bpd of crude oil from Canada via pipelines and rail. In other words, 95% of the total export volume goes to the United States, two thirds of whose oil requirements are covered by Canada. According to Bimco, the Midwest in particular is dependent on Canadian imports – yet President Trump has imposed tariffs of 10% on oil from Canada, which threatens trade between the two countries.
In the last ten years, Canadian crude oil production has increased by around 50%, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA). In 2025, it will increase by a further 0.2 million bpd to a total of 6.23 million bpd. Due to the threatened trade partnership, it is now important for Canada to find alternative export routes.
“According to the IEA, the Trans Mountain pipeline still has a spare throughput of 150,000 to 200,000 bpd, which points to a further increase in seaborne exports to Asia in 2025,” says analyst Rasmussen. This would further benefit crude oil tankers, and much of the seaborne cargo would be diverted to Asia and Europe. A Phase 3 expansion of the pipeline is also under discussion, which could increase export capacity from Vancouver by a further 300,000 bpd.
