Executives at Taiwanese mainline operator Yang Ming Marine Transport said at a press conference on 25 September that they are pessimistic about the final quarter of 2025.
They said the usual Q3 peak season started and ended early due to front-loading, while high newbuilding deliveries and US-China trade tensions have made shippers wait and see before booking slots. In 1H 25, Yang Ming’s net profit was down 37% from H1 24, to US$300 million.
Yang Ming President Cliff Pai stated: “The fourth quarter is traditionally the off-season for major routes to Europe and the US. Due to the delay in resolving the US-China tariff tensions, the overall market sentiment isn’t strong. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index fell to its lowest point this year on the 19th. The fourth quarter is under great pressure and pessimistic, and shipment momentum is expected to be weak.”
Following front-loading in the early part of the year, US National Retail Federation (NRF) expects reduced seaborne imports into the US in 4Q 25, due to front-loading in 1H 25. Full-year imports are estimated at 24.7 million TEU in 2025, down 3.4% from 2024.
However, Yang Ming’s management stated that the third round of tariff negotiations between China and the US could take place in November. Mr Pai said: “If there is a resolution, this could trigger a restocking trend before the Chinese New Year in 2026.”
The continuing Houthi scourge and unresolved geopolitical issues in the Middle East, meanwhile there is no prospect of resuming Red Sea sailings in the next three months.
When asked if current freight rates have fallen to break even level, Mr Pai stated that the cost structure of each route varies, making it difficult to use current freight rates to determine the cost base.
He said: “Freight rates are currently fluctuating significantly, requiring continued observation.” Mr Pai added that the Premier Alliance, which Yang Ming belongs to, has reacted to the market correction by withdrawing transpacific sailings from this month. The blanked sailings would be in place until March 2026 at least, amounting to a 20% reduction in transpacific capacity.
While pessimism prevails at Yang Ming, its compatriot Evergreen sees itself in a better position – the reason for this is its focus on regional freight. (PL)
