The cost of ship insurance in the Black Sea has risen significantly after Ukrainian naval drones recently attacked two sanctioned tankers on their way to the Russian oil terminal Novorossiysk.
According to industry observers, the latest incidents have led to a noticeable increase in war risk premiums. Rates for calls at Ukrainian ports climbed to 0.5% for a seven-day insurance period, compared to 0.4% in the previous week. Rates of 0.65% to 0.8% are currently quoted for Russian ports in the Black Sea – also a significant increase.
The two tankers attacked, “Kairos” and “Virat”, were on their way to Novorossiysk unladen and are on Western sanctions lists. The Ukrainian security service spoke of targeted measures to limit Russia’s oil revenues. Insurers see the attacks as an intensification of the risk environment. Underwriters are now calculating with a wider range of potential targets and a higher probability of further attacks.
According to naval analyst Andrii Ryzhenko, these are the first attacks on non-military and non-Russian flagged ships in international waters. However, he believes that a Russian response to merchant ships in the territorial waters of NATO states such as Turkey, Bulgaria or Romania is unlikely.
Incidents are also increasing outside the Black Sea. Since the end of 2024, at least seven tankers that had previously called at Russian ports have been damaged by explosions – including cases in the Mediterranean. Most recently, the Turkish oil tanker “Mersin” off the coast of Senegal was hit by several external detonations. The authorities spoke of a “serious incident” in the engine room with massive water ingress. The cause is still under investigation.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan condemned the attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea and warned all sides against further escalation.
There were 45 crew members on board the “Kairos” and the “Virat” who were rescued. The “Kairos” reported an external impact, which is said to have triggered the fire. According to the Turkish maritime authority DGM, the “Virat” reported that it had been “hit”; the authority did not provide any information on the nature of the hit.
Both tankers are part of the so-called shadow fleet and are considered an important tool for Russia’s oil industry. According to OpenSanctions, the “Virat” has been on sanctions lists of the USA and other countries since January. The “Kairos” has been sanctioned by the EU since July, followed by the United Kingdom and Switzerland. Both ships sail under the Gambian flag.
