As of October 14, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) wants to curb Chinese dominance in maritime transport with new levies.
This would affect around 35% of the bulk, crude oil, product and container ships deployed worldwide – ships that represent 44% of the total capacity in these segments. Nevertheless, Bimco chief analyst Niels Rasmussen emphasizes that freight rates are not expected to rise.
Of the units concerned, 70% are Chinese-operated or owned by Chinese companies and 30% were built in China. However, more than half of these ships are exempt from the charges due to their size or US ownership.
According to the Bimco analysis, the bulk segment is particularly affected: 45% of ships could be subject to the additional charges. In comparison, the proportion for crude oil tankers and container ships is 30%, and only 19% for product tankers.
Global influence likely to remain limited
Despite these quotas, the global impact is likely to remain limited. This year, US markets account for only 9-19% of global demand in the segments, and only 16-24% of US exports and imports have so far been handled by ships that will be subject to the USTR regulation in the future.
A look at the planned departures in container traffic shows that less than 20% of the ships used by the ten largest liner shipping companies for US calls are affected – predominantly units from Cosco Shipping Lines, Orient Overseas Container Line or Chinese leasing banks. Cosco has already announced that it will maintain services and competitive rates; other carriers have confirmed that they will not introduce surcharges.
“As several liner operators have already pledged to keep rates stable and Cosco has to do the same for competitive reasons, we do not expect increases in the container market. In the bulk and tanker segments, the affected ships are likely to give up US voyages, which will also not put pressure on prices. However, short-term uncertainties regarding implementation could cause temporary increases,” says Rasmussen.
Cosco and OOCL strongly affected
A recent analysis by Alphaliner confirms this picture: according to the analysis, the Chinese state shipping company Cosco, including its subsidiary OOCL, will incur additional costs totaling USD 1.53 billion. Other liner shipping companies are also heavily affected – ZIM with $510 million, ONE with $363 million and CMA CGM with $335 million.
The new US rules stipulate that ships owned or operated by Chinese companies will be charged a flat rate of $80 per net tonnage per voyage. For non-Chinese operators of ships built in China, the higher rate of $23 per net tonnage or $154 per TEU capacity applies. Both variants apply a maximum of five times per year and ship.
