Is the Red Sea safe for shipping again after the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas? When will the container lines return? According to a high-ranking shipping company representative, this is likely to take some time.
The chairman of the Taiwanese shipping company Yang Ming Marine Transport, Tsai Feng-ming, believes that the shipping lines will not return to the Suez Canal until May at the earliest.
Speaking at the Chinese New Year celebration of the National Association of Chinese Shipowners, Tsai said that although Israel and Hamas had reached a ceasefire on January 19, shipping companies would continue to monitor the situation to see if peace would prevail. One of the developments resulting from the war is that the Yemeni Houthi militia, like Hamas an ally of Iran, has repeatedly attacked ships in the Red Sea.
“Even if the war ends in the next 60 days, it will take at least three more months for supply and demand to normalize. Any decision to return to the Red Sea must be made by the allies,” Tsai continued. Yang Ming is part of the Premier Alliance, which was formed following the reorganization of the alliance structure. Following the withdrawal of Hamburg-based shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, it consists of Yang Ming, ONE and HMM – with industry leader MSC as a cooperation partner.
Overcapacity expected when Suez crossings resume
Tsai believes that 2025 could bring a number of new challenges, including potential overcapacity when the Suez crossings resume. US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports are also causing uncertainty in the global supply chain. In addition, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas remains on shaky ground, as both sides are exchanging Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages in several phases until March 1.
“The first half of the year must be viewed with caution. The industry will be keeping a close eye on future fleet allocation and route planning. When the crisis in the Red Sea is resolved and the supply of ships exceeds demand, everyone will be speculating about the impact on freight rates. How the shipping companies react and adjust to the freight rate fluctuations will influence the overall market changes. Safety will be the key factor for a return to the Red Sea,” he emphasized.
The shipping companies would continue to monitor the political changes. Even after the end of the war between Israel and Palestine, geopolitics will influence the following three months. With regard to the trade tensions between the USA and China, he expects the Trump administration to introduce further measures. He said: “2025 will be a very challenging year for shipping companies, so they can only respond to the ever-changing situations by remaining constant.” (PL)
