The latest data from Bimco shows a marked decline in seaborne coal deliveries to China. According to the report, imports fell by around 10% last year as domestic supply increased and demand from steel production and power generation declined.
Despite the decline, China remains the world’s largest importer of coal with a share of 28%. Seaborne coal shipments cover a total of 4% of global demand for dry bulk tonne-miles. 87% of imports are accounted for by thermal coal for power generation and 13% by coking coal for steel production.
In 2025, 90% of seaborne supply volumes came from Indonesia, Australia and Russia. Indonesia mainly supplied thermal coal, while Australia and Russia provided both qualities. In addition to seaborne imports, China continues to source large quantities overland from Mongolia and Russia.
The decline in coal imports had a noticeable impact on the market for dry bulk goods. According to Bimco data, coal tonne-miles to China fell by 21%, as transport distances shrank in addition to lower volumes. Long-distance shipments from the USA and Colombia were particularly hard hit, falling by 70% and 80% respectively. Price competition from Asia and higher tariffs on US coal put additional pressure on these routes.
The effects were particularly evident in the Capesize and Supramax segments. Coal tonne-miles fell by 44 % and 19 % respectively. Both segments were also in competition with Panamax ships. Although volumes on Panamax units only fell by 1 %, tonne-miles fell by 8 % due to the absence of US cargoes.
No recovery in demand for coal expected in China in the medium term
There are also few signs of a recovery in the medium term. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects Chinese demand for coal to fall by 1 % between 2025 and 2027 – for both thermal coal and coking coal. At the same time, the installed capacity of renewable energies is expected to almost triple by 2030 and meet or exceed the growing demand for electricity. The World Steel Association also expects Chinese demand for steel to fall by 1% in 2026. Beijing is also planning to limit steel production in order to curb overcapacity.
According to the IEA, the coal supply in China is expected to fall faster than demand. An oversupply in 2025 had depressed prices and caused inventories to rise. A 4% decline in production is expected between 2025 and 2027 – the first since 2016.
For sea freight, this development means a further decline in transportation. The IEA forecasts that China’s total imports will fall by 8%, with stable land deliveries from Mongolia. For sea freight, this corresponds to a 10 % decline in coal imports compared to 2025. The extent of this development will ultimately depend on the extent to which the Chinese government regulates domestic mining.
