The Red Sea and the surrounding regions appear to have become much safer for shipping again. Traffic has increased significantly.
However, the volume is still well below pre-crisis levels. In addition, the political situation remains uncertain.
Compared to the data from August 2024, the volume of shipping traffic in the Red Sea has increased by 60%. Instead of 20 to 23 ships, there are now 36 to 37 per day that choose the route via the Suez Canal. However, Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, commander of the EU naval mission Aspides, pointed out that the volume is far from having recovered. Before November 2023, when the Houthi attacks on merchant ships began, the average daily number of ships was 72 to 75.
Attacks in the Red Sea have decreased
The increase in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is due to the fact that the Houthi missile and drone attacks have decreased. The ceasefire between the USA and Iran, which supports the Houthis in Yemen, has also contributed to this, Gryparis told the Reuters news agency.
According to Gryparis, the last attack on a merchant ship took place in November 2024. Since then, the Houthis have restricted their targets: ships with links to Israel or docked in Israeli ports are at particular risk. “If your ship does not fall into this category, the probability of being attacked is extremely low – over 99%,” said Gryparis. However, he warned that absolute safety could not be guaranteed. Since its launch, the EU’s Aspides mission has provided comprehensive protection to more than 450 ships in the Red Sea.
Even though calm may have returned at first glance, there is still uncertainty in the region. While US President Trump declared a month ago that the Houthis had “surrendered” and the crisis was over, the militia has not yet made any statement to this effect and has even threatened to expand its attacks. There has also been talk of a sea blockade of the Israeli port of Haifa.
Large container shipping companies such as CMA CGM and the Gemini alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd recently announced that they would continue to avoid the Red Sea until the situation had calmed down completely. (JW)
