Is the whole of Europe on the brink of war? This question was discussed at an event organized by the German Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies. The answer: the danger has never been greater since the Cold War.
The guests on the panel were Marika Linntam. The Ambassador of the Republic of Estonia to Germany reported on how it feels for her home country to have an aggressor like Russia as a neighbor. Lieutenant General Jürgen-Joachim von Sandrart, who was commander of the Multinational Corps Northeast in Szczecin, Poland, until the end of November, provided a military perspective on the current threat situation. The panel was complemented by Konrad Schuller, political correspondent for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung in Berlin and former correspondent for Poland and Ukraine.
Ukraine as a “petri dish”
After the debate was opened by Colonel Stefan Klenz from the German Armed Forces Command and Staff College, Captain André Pecher introduced the topic as moderator. He described the situation in Ukraine as a “petri dish” for a new image of war for us in Europe. “The risk of war between NATO and Russia has never been as high as it has been since the end of the Cold War,” said Pecher. “Unfortunately, there are repeated threats from Moscow that are directed against the sovereignty of the eastern NATO states, but also against us,” continued Pecher. It is clear that these states can only defend themselves with the support of their alliance partners. The threat posed by the 1,600 km long border between NATO and Russia is real. This is particularly noticeable in the frontline states of Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Lithuania. Some would even say that we are already at war with Russia, says Pecher.
USA breaks with Europe
Until recently, the threat only came from the East, but now the danger is also lurking in the West. The scandal between Trump and Selensky and the freezing of US support for Ukraine herald a new era: “It is the clear departure of the USA from 80 years of certainty of a common understanding of norms, a break with collective defense and a profound change for Europe’s security architecture.”
In view of this situation, the Estonian ambassador was nevertheless not resigned. Even if the USA were to cease to be a NATO partner, there would still be 31 countries in the alliance. She emphasized that there was no reason why Europe should not strongly oppose Russia: “We have a larger economy and many times the population”.
“Putin under control”, challenge in Berlin
At the beginning of his statement, Lieutenant General von Sandrart drew parallels to the Cold War. He made it clear that the danger posed by Russia had been misjudged in Germany for many years. In the Eastern European capitals, people had been aware of the danger much earlier than in Berlin. In this context, he pointed out that Putin makes no secret of the fact that he regards Ukraine as a mistake in history. Likewise the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin clearly wants to correct history, said von Sandrart. Russia’s immediate neighbors have understood this. In his role as Commanding General, he had “Putin under control”, but his real challenge was in Berlin, he states.
Journalist Konrad Schuller was also self-critical in the panel discussion, stating that he had personally misread Russia, as had Western politicians. Events such as the war in Chechnya, the prevention of Ukraine and Georgia from joining NATO and the annexation of Crimea had revealed Russia’s plans. And the West also had a different view of politicians such as Mikhail Gorbachev, who is viewed critically in the Baltic states.
The window is open
With a view to the current situation and the danger of war in NATO, General von Sandrart made it clear that a “window of opportunity” has now opened for Russia. Putin senses his chance to implement his plans. That is why it is now important to act quickly. There are three threats on the timeline: from the east, from the west and very clearly from within. The problem now is not money, but time.
Marika Linntam expressed a similar view: “The time is now”. To act now, but also to invest more in Europe for defense. Von Sandrart was of the same opinion. With the troops on the eastern flank, he sees Germany as a frontline nation. German soldiers are right on the border between NATO and Russia. That is why it is important to procure the things that are urgently needed now and not in 2035.
The investments we are making now should focus on helping to secure the entire Baltic Sea region. “And we have to be quick,” he added. Because this is the last legislature that can manage to meet the challenges in the east, west and in our country. “If we fail to do this, our children’s future will be on the table of the dark forces. Then we have lost. It’s now or never,” he appealed.
Anyone interested in the German debate “NATO’s eastern flank: How high is the danger of war?” can watch it as a video on YouTube. The GIDS has made the video available here:
