There is little movement in rates and ship prices in MPP shipping. The latest trend is slightly negative.
“The market has made a stable, albeit somewhat subdued, start to the new year,” according to the latest market report from Hamburg broker Toepfer Transport. As usual, politics is playing an important role. “The impact of recent geopolitical events, particularly in the Caribbean, is still uncertain and the market is reacting with a degree of caution,” the analysts write.
The development is also reflected in the rate index published by Toepfer Transport. It refers to time charter rates for the so-called workhorses of the industry: the F-Class multipurpose freighters (12,500 dwt, 240 t lifting capacity). At the turn of the year, the TMI fell slightly compared to the previous month, dropping from $12,880 to $12,648. After a small upswing in November and December, it has now slipped back again.
Market participants, whose assessments and rates are included in the TMI, expect the trend to remain stable in the coming months, albeit with a slight positive tendency. Toepfer Transport regularly surveys expectations for the next six and twelve months and reflects them in the TMI-P6 and TMI-P12 indices. The former currently shows a plus of 0.02%. The medium-term assessment is a plus of 0.51% for rates over the next twelve months.
Prices for used tonnage have also undergone a slight downward correction in recent weeks. According to the Toepfer Transport Observatory, a ten-year-old 9,000-dwt vessel currently costs $9.75 million, down from $10 million the previous month. The second-hand level for 12,500-dwt vessels has fallen from $15 million to $14.5 million, while prices for larger units in the 30,000-dwt class remain at $23 million.
Extensive fleet modernization in MPP shipping is still pending. There have been a few orders recently. However, these were mainly in the even larger segment with around 60,000 tdw, for example from Chipolbrok and Cosco.
In smaller segments, construction prices and the uncertain outlook are repeatedly cited as reasons for restraint. Toepfer Transport’s assessment: “Prices for newbuildings remain unchanged compared to previous months, but we assume that shipyards will be more optimistic in the initial phase of negotiations”.
