The US increased its seaborne grain exports by 9% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year. According to Bimco analyst Filipe Gouveia, the growth was primarily driven by higher corn exports. Despite a significant decline in shipments to China due to increased tariffs, the US has found new markets for most of its exports.
In March 2025, China imposed higher tariffs on US grain, significantly reducing the competitiveness of American exports. As a result, the share of US grain shipments destined for China fell from 26% in the first half of 2024 to just 10% this year. To offset this decline, the US expanded exports to other regions in Asia, Latin America, and the Mediterranean.
Losses in soybeans and sorghum
However, the market shift could not fully compensate for losses in certain agricultural products. US soybean exports declined by 10%, while sorghum exports plunged by 89%, as China continues to play a dominant role in these segments. Notably, 67% of global soybean shipments and 84% of sorghum shipments go to China. In contrast, China’s share of global wheat (-7%) and corn imports (-5%) is significantly lower.
Shorter distances, declining tonne-mile demand
“Although the increased export volume in the first half of 2025 was a positive stimulus for the dry bulk sector, demand per tonne-mile nevertheless fell by 7% year-on-year, as average shipping distances were 14% shorter. The new customer markets for US grain are, on average, closer to the US than China. In addition, traffic via the Panama Canal has recovered, further shortening shipping distances,” Gouveia continued.
So far this year, 46% of US grain exports have been transported by Panamax vessels, 32% by Supramax, and 22% by Handysize units. Demand per tonne-mile increased in the Panamax and Handysize segments, supported by higher transport volumes. The Supramax segment, however, experienced a 33% decline, facing strong competition from Panamax vessels in key destination markets such as Japan and China—the two largest importers of US grain.
Shift to different ship types
The grain harvest season begins in the US in the coming months. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects corn production to increase by around 6%, while slight declines are forecast for wheat and soybeans.
“With the US harvest, a seasonal increase in grain exports is expected for the rest of the year. Tighter global supply conditions for wheat and corn could support demand for US exports. However, finding new buyers for soybeans and sorghum is likely to remain more difficult. Especially for soybeans, China is likely to continue to prefer Brazilian supplies – aided by growing production in Brazil,” concludes Bimco analyst Gouveia.
