Compared to the same period last year, grain exports fell by 49% overall. Following weaker harvests in the second half of 2024, both countries reported a smaller export surplus.
According to Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at the organization Bimco, combined production is 10% below pre-war levels.
According to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Russian and Ukrainian grain harvests fell by 12% and 6% respectively last year due to poor weather conditions. In response to the lower production, Russia cut its wheat export quota by 63% between February and June 2025.
Ukrainian sea transportation remained stable despite war-related disruptions and Russian attacks on the port of Odessa in March 2025. However, the EU’s duty-free trade agreement for Ukrainian agricultural exports expired in June. The revised agreement excludes wheat and corn.
In 2024, Russia and Ukraine were the fourth and fifth largest grain exporters in the world. Russia was the leader in wheat exports, while Ukraine ranked fourth for maize and fifth for wheat. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine led to a decline in Ukrainian wheat and corn yields, and during the last harvest yields fell to a new low of 33% below pre-war levels. In contrast, Russia managed to slightly increase wheat yields by 9%.
“The slowdown in supplies from Russia and Ukraine contributed to an estimated 6% decline in global grain supplies between January and August 2025,” says Gouveia. “An increase in shipments from the US, Canada, Australia, Argentina and Romania only partially compensated for the weaker cargoes from Russia and Ukraine. Overall, this had a negative impact on demand for Panamax, Supramax and Handysize vessels.”
So far this year, 70% of grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine have gone to ports in the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and the Middle East. According to Bimco, this is 13% more than last year, as deliveries to East Africa and South, Southeast and East Asia have fallen by 62% compared to last year.
“Over the next twelve months, we expect a partial recovery in Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments due to an expected 19% increase in Ukrainian corn yields, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Wheat supplies could remain stable as an expected 2% increase in Russian yields is offset by an 8% decline in Ukrainian yields. Overall, Ukraine’s grain production is expected to be 6% below pre-war levels and will be the second weakest year since the war began.”
