The PwC Shipping Study 2025 shows that political uncertainties and the situation in the Red Sea are changing global shipping routes. Despite difficult conditions, revenues and capacity utilization remain stable.
Despite major geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening economy, the German shipping industry is proving robust – this is the result of a recent study by the consultancy firm PwC. Nine out of ten German ocean shipping companies (93%) are currently reporting full capacity utilization.
The maritime industry is also optimistic about the future, according to PwC. According to the report, 58% of shipping companies expect sales growth in the next twelve months.
Trump as a major uncertainty factor
However, this is clouded by the current geopolitical situation: the renewed presidency of Donald Trump and the course of the US government in particular are causing uncertainty. According to the PwC study, 91% of respondents fear that the Trump administration will have a negative impact on the German shipping industry. The majority of managers (56%) believe the situation is even worse than expected. One in two (51%) are of the opinion that there is “no longer a legally secure global framework for economic activity”.
“Uncertainties are increasingly shaping the global economy. For example, political decisions in the USA are becoming increasingly difficult to predict. This makes long-term planning and investments more difficult for companies and inhibits international trade,” comments Burkhard Sommer, Head of the Maritime Competence Center at PwC Germany.
From the perspective of those surveyed, the result is likely to be a geopolitical realignment: 90% of managers expect a shift in protection zones and spheres of influence; 81% see shipping being affected by trade wars and embargoes.
Threat level in the Red Sea remains high
The tense situation on the world’s oceans is also challenging from a security policy perspective: In July 2025, the Houthi militia once again attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea, targeting a sea trade route that is considered one of the main arteries of global economic coexistence – especially for transportation between Asia and Europe.
The shipping companies surveyed rate the risk situation in the Red Sea as correspondingly high: On average, they rate it at 7.1 points on a scale of 0 to 10. Last year, the average score was slightly higher at 7.6 points. André Wortmann, former head of the Maritime Competence Center and co-editor of the study, explains this as follows: “On the one hand, there seems to be a habituation effect; the risk situation is becoming the norm. On the other hand, most ocean shipping companies have developed strategies to avoid dicey situations.”
For example, 61 of the 62 shipping companies operating in the Red Sea are now taking detours to avoid the area, even if these alternative routes – around the Cape of Good Hope, for example – are more resource-intensive and also involve risks such as piracy and bad weather.
However, according to the study, the detours have a positive side effect: they counteract overcapacity and keep rates stable. 86% of shipping companies agree with the statement that there would be overcapacity in cargo shipping and more pressure on rates if everything ran smoothly in the Red Sea.
German shipping companies’ need for security is increasing
The risks in the Red Sea are also considered to be so high because fewer and fewer companies are relying on the USA as a protective shield. 52% of shipping companies assume that the USA will only be involved to a lesser extent in protecting international shipping in this region in future or will even reduce its involvement completely.
Against this backdrop, German shipping companies expressed a very high need for security in the survey: 40% see their business impaired by inadequate security structures; for 73%, the unpredictable political situation is already having a negative impact on their business.
According to PwC, shipping companies are in favor of federal politicians and the German navy stepping up their efforts to improve maritime safety: 92% are in favor of giving maritime surveillance a higher priority. Just as many are in favor of improvements to the protection of German maritime infrastructure, such as underwater pipelines, offshore wind farms and ports. 84% call for the German Navy to be empowered to better protect German shipping and its sea routes. There is a general consensus that unmanned weapons systems will become more important in view of the current geopolitical situation (agreement: 96%).
Three out of four shipping companies are planning fleet expansions
Despite all these uncertainties, the vast majority of ocean shipping companies are confident, according to PwC. At 78%, the vast majority of managers expect global cargo volumes to continue to increase in the medium term. Only a minority of respondents (36%) fear that fewer transport capacities will be needed at sea in the future due to tariffs and trade barriers.
Another indication of the confidence of German shipping companies is that the majority are planning to expand their fleets. For example, 76% of respondents stated that they intend to order new ships or buy used ships in the next twelve months.
For 2024 and 2025, the balance between additions and disposals of ships at German shipping companies is consistently positive. New ship orders are gaining in importance compared to the purchase of used ships. “The focus on purchasing new ships is also due to the fact that the German maritime industry needs to reposition itself in order to meet regulatory requirements such as international environmental regulations,” explains Burkhard Sommer.
However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty with regard to future propulsion technologies: seven out of ten shipping companies state that they would order more new ships if it were clear which propulsion technology would prevail. At present, shipping companies consider methanol, LNG and biodiesel to be the most important fuels for the long-haul routes of the future. Electricity appears to be insignificant on long-haul routes, but is currently considered to be the most relevant fuel for the short-haul routes of the future. “The industry needs more planning security in order to be able to invest in new ships with foresight,” concludes PwC expert Burkhard Sommer.
About the PwC study
113 decision-makers from German ocean shipping companies took part in the 17th shipping company study conducted by the auditing and consulting firm PwC Germany.
